王英全  梁景宏  贾瑞霞  徐  勇

(苏州大学公共卫生学院)

2019年1月  第2卷  第1期 文章编号  2096-5516(2019)01-0289-10

摘要    目的：对中国未来老年人群阿尔茨海默病（Alzheimer disease：AD）患病情况进行预测，为我国相关公共卫生政策的制定和实施提供参考。方法：检索国内外数据库，对符合纳入标准的阿尔茨海默病流行病学研究结果进行meta分析，计算过去30年不同时期老年人阿尔茨海默病合并患病率。以2015年全国1%人口普查数据为基础，采用年龄移算法预测我国未来60岁以上老年人口数。将近年（2015-2018）全国不同年龄组阿尔茨海默病合并患病率与未来人口相结合，预测我国2050年老年人阿尔茨海默病患病情况。结果：我国1985-2018年阿尔茨海默病合并患病率为3.9%(CI：3.4-4.4)，其中2015-2018年合并患病率为6.6%(CI：4.7-8.6)。2020年、2030年、2040年60岁以上老年人患病人数分别为1450、2075、2687万。2050年患病人数为3003万，其中年龄组60-69岁、70-79岁、≧80岁患病人数分别为614、907、1482万人。2050年阿尔茨海默病患病人数为2015年的2.35倍。结论：如果没有相应的有效预防措施，中国阿尔茨海默病患病人数在未来30年将大幅增长。

Alzheimer disease in China (2015-2050) estimated using the 1% population sampling survey in 2015

Wang Ying-quan, Liang Jing-hong, Jia Rui-xia, Xu Yong

(School of Public Health, Medical College of Soochow University)

Abstract    Objective To determine the prevalence of Alzheimer disease（AD）in the past thirty years and provide estimates about elderly (aged 60 and over) people with AD in China from 2015 to 2050. Method Retrieve the Chinese and English data base. Screening published epidemiology surveys of dementia from 1990-2018. Meta-analysis was used to calculate their pooled prevalence. The age-moving method was used to estimate the population aged 60 and over in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 based on the data of the sampling survey of 1% of the population in 2015 released by the National bureau of statistics. Pooled prevalence from 2015 to 2017 was used as the basis to estimate the number of elderly people with dementia in the future. Results The pooled prevalence of Alzheimer disease from 1985 to 2018 was 3.9% (CI: 3.4-4.4). 6.6% (CI: 4.7-8.6) as the prevalence rate from 2015 to 2018 among them. In 2020, 2030 and 2040, the number of people with Alzheimer disease will be 14.50, 20.75 and 26.87 million. There will be 30.03 million people with Alzheimer disease in 2050. 6.14 million, 9.07 million, 14.82 million as the number of AD patients in different age groups. The number of people with Alzheimer disease will be 2.35 times than that of 2015. Conclusion The number of Alzheimer disease in China will increase dramatically in the next 30 years without preventive measures.